% Lecture 5A example: Coin from a box
theta  = [0 .25 .5 .75 1]
pri    = [.1 .1 .6 .1 .1]
lik    = (1-theta)
unpost = pri .* lik
post   = unpost / sum(unpost)

bar(theta, post);   % plot the posterior distribution
set(gca,'xtick',theta)
postheads = sum(post .* theta)   % posterior probability of heads
posttails = sum(post .* (1-theta))  % posterior probability of tails