ELEC-E4540 - Space Climate D, Lecture, 18.4.2024-24.5.2024

Aurora forecast report

• Choose a date for your forecast and mention it in your report (Observation date must be between May 27th and June 15th, 2024). You should include the geomagnetic and solar wind data to your report for the entire day.

Note: All answers should be typed in a Microsoft Word document.

Theory part

• Calculate the location of the magnetopause.
  o Explain the theory and the approximations you need to make.

• Estimate the solar wind travel time from L1 to the magnetopause based on your observation.

  o You need to check solar wind data (for example DSCOVR satellite) and estimate the average speed.

• Explain, which geomagnetic data are most suitable for your prediction and why.

• Explain the Dungey Cycle
  o find a scientific article that estimate the duration of the Dungey cycle and use

  that estimation for your forecast. Please mention your reference as well.

  Observation part

  • Find these solar observations and discuss your findings (ground-based and space- based data):

  • Magnetogram data

  • SDO short and long-wave

  • Active regions

  • Coronal holes

  • Solar wind data

  • Flaring activity

    • Show plots of these geomagnetic indices and discuss your findings:

• Dst, Kp, AE

• All-sky camera data

• North/south hemisphere

• Use sky-cam if you could not find any All-sky camera in south hemisphere.